Tao dating audio
So let's say the probability of your parents meeting, ever, is 10,000 divided by 200 million, or one in 20,000. And the chances of that turning into a long-term relationship is also one in 10.And the chances of lasting long enough to result in offspring is one in two.That is, instead of making one big hand-waving gesture and pronouncing, "The answer is 500 squintillion," we make a series of sequentially-reasoned, smaller hand-waving gestures so as to make it all seem scientific.(This is also known as "consulting" -- especially if you show it all in a Power Point deck.) This is going to be fun.You are the result of the fusion of one particular egg with one particular sperm.Each sperm and each egg is genetically unique because of the process of meiosis.On my birthday, I had a strangely pertinent thought: what's the probability of being born?
What would we come up with ourselves starting with first principles, making some reasonable assumptions and putting them all together?
That number is not just larger than all of the particles in the universe -- it's larger than all the particles in the universe if each particle were itself a universe. Probability of every one of your ancestors reproducing successfully: one in 10 But let's think about this some more.
Remember the sperm-meeting-egg argument for the creation of you, since each gamete is unique?
A miracle is an event so unlikely as to be almost impossible.
By that definition, I've just proven that you are a miracle.Then what would be the chance of your particular lineage to have remained unbroken for 150,000 generations?